Predictions for 2022

I joined Metaculus in 2020 and did a bunch of predictions, got high up on the leaderboard, and quit after a few months. I figured I’d do a set of predictions now for fun, to keep up practice, and to have a reference for calibration later.

1. Tether is worth less than 99c at end of year: 2%

2. UST (algocoin from Terra protocol) below 50c: 65%

3. OHM marketcap under 1B: 70%

4. Bored Ape Yacht Club floor price is lower than today in dollars ($253k): 60%

5. Bill signed by Joe Biden that mentions cryptocurrency/blockchain/etc: 65%

6. BTC over 100k: 25%

7. ETH over 5k: 40%

8. GME over $100: 50%

9. DWAC over $50: 40%

10. Trump Media & Technology Group releases social media site: 70%

11. … and gets at least 1M users: 60%

12. … 10M users: 40%

13. TMTG 2022 revenue at least 100M: 20%

14. S&P 500 goes up: 80%

15. QQQ beats S&P: 60%

16. Biden or Harris mentions GPT-4: 2%

17. At least one school district or university is reported to tell students not to use language models (not just one teacher): 15%

18. A deepfake goes viral (>1 million views) with very few people, at first, realizing that it's fake: 15%

19. Level 4 autonomous cars commercially available: 25%

20. Annual CPI inflation released Jan 2023 (for Dec 2022) over 3.5%: 40%

21. Unemployment rate over 5% at any point during year: 40%

22. 2022 will be warmer than 2021: 65%

23. Russia is widely considered to have captured the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv: 8%

24. Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023: 25%

25. The Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade: 50%

26. Dems lose the Senate: 75%

27. Dems lose the house: 85%

28. Biden is president: 95%

29. Trump indictment: 20%

30. Matt Gaetz indictment: 5%

31. Matt Gaetz in office: 95%

32. Federal booster mandate: 33%

33. Masks required on airplanes by Federal law: 65%

34. The 7 day rolling average deaths from Covid-19 falls below 100 in the United States for at least one day: 85%

35. Omicron booster is taken by at least 25% of Americans over 18: 20%

36. New variant infects over 10M: 25%

    
    Personal:

37. Portfolio return beats 2021: .5%

38. … beats SPY: 75%

39. … beats BTC: 85%

40. I write at least 6 links posts: 25%

41. … at least 3: 50%

42. … at least 3 other posts: 20%

43. … at least one post that gets more hits (17k) than my current top post: 35%

44. I turn on paid subscriptions: 1%

45. I read more books in 2022 than 2021: 50%