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Predictions for 2022

misinfounderload.substack.com

Predictions for 2022

Avraham Eisenberg
Jan 2, 2022
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Predictions for 2022

misinfounderload.substack.com

I joined Metaculus in 2020 and did a bunch of predictions, got high up on the leaderboard, and quit after a few months. I figured I’d do a set of predictions now for fun, to keep up practice, and to have a reference for calibration later.

  1. Tether is worth less than 99c at end of year: 2%

  2. UST (algocoin from Terra protocol) below 50c: 65%

  3. OHM marketcap under 1B: 70%

  4. Bored Ape Yacht Club floor price is lower than today in dollars ($253k): 60%

  5. Bill signed by Joe Biden that mentions cryptocurrency/blockchain/etc: 65%

  6. BTC over 100k: 25%

  7. ETH over 5k: 40%

  8. GME over $100: 50%

  9. DWAC over $50: 40%

  10. Trump Media & Technology Group releases social media site: 70%

  11. … and gets at least 1M users: 60%

  12. … 10M users: 40%

  13. TMTG 2022 revenue at least 100M: 20%

  14. S&P 500 goes up: 80%

  15. QQQ beats S&P: 60%

  16. Biden or Harris mentions GPT-4: 2%

  17. At least one school district or university is reported to tell students not to use language models (not just one teacher): 15%

  18. A deepfake goes viral (>1 million views) with very few people, at first, realizing that it's fake: 15%

  19. Level 4 autonomous cars commercially available: 25%

  20. Annual CPI inflation released Jan 2023 (for Dec 2022) over 3.5%: 40%

  21. Unemployment rate over 5% at any point during year: 40%

  22. 2022 will be warmer than 2021: 65%

  23. Russia is widely considered to have captured the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv: 8%

  24. Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023: 25%

  25. The Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade: 50%

  26. Dems lose the Senate: 75%

  27. Dems lose the house: 85%

  28. Biden is president: 95%

  29. Trump indictment: 20%

  30. Matt Gaetz indictment: 5%

  31. Matt Gaetz in office: 95%

  32. Federal booster mandate: 33%

  33. Masks required on airplanes by Federal law: 65%

  34. The 7 day rolling average deaths from Covid-19 falls below 100 in the United States for at least one day: 85%

  35. Omicron booster is taken by at least 25% of Americans over 18: 20%

  36. New variant infects over 10M: 25%


    Personal:

  37. Portfolio return beats 2021: .5%

  38. … beats SPY: 75%

  39. … beats BTC: 85%

  40. I write at least 6 links posts: 25%

  41. … at least 3: 50%

  42. … at least 3 other posts: 20%

  43. … at least one post that gets more hits (17k) than my current top post: 35%

  44. I turn on paid subscriptions: 1%

  45. I read more books in 2022 than 2021: 50%

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Predictions for 2022

misinfounderload.substack.com
4 Comments
Alex
Jan 7, 2022

Are you accepting bets? Eg I'd love to bet on the Kyiv question.

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1 reply by Avraham Eisenberg
Aaron Kreider
Jan 4, 2022

Do you think UST will recover from a drop to 50 cents? Or will it lose say 90% of its market cap?

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